The essentials
Harris Interactive poll puts Le Pen first at 33-35% and Mélenchon in the runoff in every scenario.
A Harris Interactive poll for M6/RTL, published on 23 October 2026, places Marine Le Pen first in first-round voting intentions at 33-35%. Jean-Luc Mélenchon polls at 17-19%, ahead of Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann, and qualifies for the second round in all tested scenarios.
Gabriel Attal registers 5-11%, David Lisnard polls at 7-8%, and Bruno Retailleau at 4-5%. Since the previous poll wave, Glucksmann gained 1-4 points and Philippe lost up to 1 point.
In second-round scenarios, Le Pen would receive 70% against Mélenchon, 57% against Philippe, and 59% against Glucksmann. The gap between Le Pen and Mélenchon widened by 3 points since the previous wave. The poll also measured transfer behavior: only 6% of Philippe voters and 23% of Glucksmann voters would block Le Pen in a Mélenchon duel.
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Runoff margins show Le Pen ahead against every tested rival
Through a head-to-head lens, the poll places Marine Le Pen ahead of every tested rival, from 57% against Édouard Philippe to 70% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The 3-point widening of her gap with Mélenchon since the previous wave is the movement most relevant to how the runoff picture is developing.
Low transfer rates suggest the left struggles to consolidate behind one candidate
Through the lens of the left's fragmentation, the blocking figures stand out: only 6% of Philippe voters and 23% of Glucksmann voters would block Le Pen in a duel with Mélenchon. Mélenchon, polling 17-19%, qualifies for the runoff in every scenario, while Glucksmann's 1-4 point gain shows support still shifting within the left.