The essentials
Pre-runoff polling showed a two-point gap, with Flávio Bolsonaro's pledge to free his imprisoned father central to the race.
Poll averages put Flávio Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 46% ahead of the runoff, a gap of two percentage points between the two finalists. The averages summarize available polling and do not by themselves predict the outcome.
The contest has unfolded alongside a candidate-specific stake tied to the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 of plotting a 2022 coup and is imprisoned. During the campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro pledged to free his father if elected, linking the family's legal situation directly to his platform.
Campaign coverage has also centered on corruption scandals, economic anxiety, and claims of US interference. The reporting does not establish how these issues are weighing on voters' choices.
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A two-point gap separates the finalists in pre-runoff polling averages
Read as a snapshot, the averages show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, 48% to 46%. A lead this small leaves room for late shifts in voter decisions or turnout to change the picture. The averages capture the race only as of the point they were compiled, so they describe the contest rather than settle it.
Family legal case and platform pledge make the candidate's father central
For voters, Flávio Bolsonaro's pledge to free his imprisoned father places his 2025 coup conviction at the center of the vote. Some may read the pledge as an expression of family loyalty, while others may see it as a signal about the candidate's approach to the judiciary. Lula's campaign, meanwhile, has faced a race where corruption and economic concerns also compete for attention.