The essentials
WMO expects El Niño to intensify through early 2027, likely making it the warmest year on record.
The World Meteorological Organization has forecasted an exceptionally strong El Niño intensifying through February 2027, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific reaching record highs. The WMO projects widespread temperature and precipitation impacts between September and November 2026, signaling a critical period for global climate effects.
This intensification places the current event among historical El Niño episodes of very strong intensity since 1950. The convergence of these conditions has led forecasters to predict that 2027 is likely to become the warmest year on record, underscoring the scale of the anticipated climate impact. The trajectory suggests continued escalation of atmospheric and oceanic disruption through the forecast period.
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Record temperatures confirm El Niño trajectory remains on extreme path
The WMO's updated forecast confirms equatorial Pacific temperatures are tracking at record highs, validating earlier predictions of exceptional intensity. Projections for September-November 2026 impacts establish a clear timeline for climate disruption, while placement among very strong historical events since 1950 contextualizes the event's magnitude within instrumental records.
Near-term climate impacts intensify as 2026 transitions toward peak conditions
The September-November 2026 window marks a critical period for global temperature and precipitation shifts, preceding the February 2027 intensification endpoint. The convergence of these escalating conditions creates a consecutive window of heightened climate activity, with 2027 positioned to potentially exceed all previous warmth records, compounding earlier assessments.