Geopolitical tensions drive oil prices higher, threaten affordability gains
Iran-US conflict raises oil prices and inflation, threatening to keep mortgage rates high despite housing reform.
Event / Politics
US Housing and Mortgage Crisis
Rising mortgage rates, reduced housing demand, and affordability concerns driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures.
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2026-08-14 to 2026-11-11 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 11 Jul, 00:30 UTC
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What happened
Strait of Hormuz closure drives up shipping and commodity costs
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict raised shipping costs globally, which drove up the price of commodities and contributed to inflation concerns that pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield.
Oil prices rise $1.11 per gallon due to Iran conflict
The average price of regular gasoline reached $4.10 per gallon on Thursday, July 30, 2026, approximately $1.11 higher than before the Iran war began in late February 2026, due to shipping disruptions and conflict-related supply concerns.
Federal Reserve holds benchmark rate steady but three members vote for hike
On Wednesday, July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, three of the central bank's rate-setting committee members voted in favor of a rate hike, signaling potential future increases.
U.S. home sales declined 2.4% year-over-year in June
U.S. home sales declined 2.4% from June 2025 to June 2026. The average existing home sold for more than $440,000, contributing to a tepid housing market where sales have barely moved over the last three years.
Fed inflation measure slows in June but remains above 2% target
New government data released Thursday showed the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation slowed in June 2026, but inflation remained stubbornly above the central bank's 2% annual target.
Iran-US conflict expands with drone strikes on Egyptian port
The Iran-US conflict expanded to Egypt on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, as drone strikes caused two natural gas vessels to catch fire in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta.
10-year Treasury yield jumps to 4.66%
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.66% at midday Thursday, July 30, 2026, up from 3.97% in late February 2026 before the Iran conflict began. This yield serves as a guide for mortgage rate pricing.
Deutsche Bank forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2026
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice in 2026 by a total of 0.50 percentage points, which would bring the federal funds rate to between 4% and 4.25%.
30-year mortgage rate reaches 6.66%, highest in one year
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.66% in the week ending July 30, 2026, marking the highest level since July 2025 when it was 6.72%. The rate increased from 6.58% the previous week.
15-year mortgage rate rises to 6.04%
The average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.04% from 5.96% the previous week. One year ago, the rate was 5.85%.
10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.66% as Iran war drives oil prices higher
The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.66% at midday Thursday. It has risen from 3.97% in late February, driven by expectations of higher inflation from crude oil price increases linked to the Iran war that began in late February.
US home sales remain sluggish despite modest growth
Seasonally adjusted sales of previously occupied US homes were up 0.7% from January to June 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, but remain close to a 4 million annual pace, far below the historic norm of approximately 5.2 million. Sales were essentially flat last year at a 30-year low.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged amid inflation concerns
The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged during its two-day monetary policy meeting. Three regional Fed bank presidents dissented in favor of higher rates to combat inflation, which has remained above the central bank's 2% target for more than five years.
30-year US mortgage rate rises to 6.66%, highest in a year
The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 6.66% from 6.58% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. This marks the fourth consecutive week of increases and is the highest level since July 31, 2025, when the rate was 6.72%. One year prior, the rate was at 6.72%.
15-year US mortgage rate rises to 6.04%
The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.04% from 5.96% the previous week. A year ago, the rate was 5.85% according to Freddie Mac data.
Mortgage applications fall 6.4% as higher rates deter homebuyers
Mortgage applications, which include loans to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage, fell 6.4% in the most recent week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
30-year fixed mortgage rate rises to 6.55%
The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.55% for the week ended July 16, 2026, up from 6.49% in the previous week. This is the highest level since August 2025 but below the 6.75% recorded a year earlier. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist noted that purchase application demand has weakened recently, though housing affordability is more favorable and housing inventory continues to rise.
15-year fixed mortgage rate rises to 5.93%
The average rate on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.93% from 5.82% in the previous week. This compares to 5.92% in the corresponding week the prior year.
President Trump refuses to sign housing bill, citing voter registration legislation as priority
President Donald Trump announced he would not sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, citing lack of Senate progress on the SAVE America Act, a voter registration bill requiring proof of citizenship for federal elections. Trump initially canceled a planned bill signing ceremony on June 24 at the Capitol and later posted on social media: 'I will not sign the Housing Bill, which has been fully approved by Congress and sent to the White House, in PROTEST over the fact that the United States Senate is not capable of passing THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.' Trump called the housing bill 'a yawn' and 'so unimportant' compared to the voting legislation.
21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without presidential signature
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law on July 6, 2026, after midnight on Saturday, without President Donald Trump's signature. The bill was approved by Congress with overwhelming bipartisan support—the Senate passed it 85-5 and the House approved it 358-32. Under constitutional procedure, legislation becomes law automatically if the president does not sign or veto within 10 days. Trump did not act on the bill after House Speaker Mike Johnson submitted it to the White House on June 29.
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2 alternative perspectives
Mortgage rates hit one-year high as recovery faces fresh headwinds
Mortgage rates hit one-year highs as inflation persists and more rate hikes loom, stalling housing demand.
Rising mortgage rates stall housing market momentum despite reform efforts
Mortgage rates surge to year-high levels, stalling home sales and applications despite housing reform efforts.
Mortgage rates climb as housing reform measures take effect
Mortgage rates rise to 6.55% (30-year) and 5.93% (15-year) as housing reform measures take effect.
U.S. median home price reaches record $440,600 milestone
U.S. median home price reaches record $440,600 in June 2026.
Housing bill delivers mortgage access and regulatory changes for lenders
Housing bill expands mortgage access for lower-income buyers and gives community banks regulatory flexibility.
Median home price continues upward trajectory near $409,000
Median U.S. home price reaches nearly $409,000 as affordability pressures persist despite legislative action.
Housing bill targets investor purchases and streamlines development approval
Housing bill restricts corporate home purchases and streamlines development approvals.
Median home prices hit $440,660 as affordability crisis widens
Median home prices hit $440,660 as most households cannot afford median-priced homes.
Bipartisan housing bill becomes law without presidential signature
Bipartisan housing bill becomes law automatically without presidential signature after congressional passage.