Pacific hurricane season intensity driven by El Niño climate dynamics
El Niño conditions are driving above-average Pacific hurricane season intensity with multiple Category 5 storms.
Event / Disaster
Major hurricanes and tropical storms affecting Mexico, the United States, and Pacific marine areas during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, including landfall events, flooding, and evacuations across multiple states.
2026-09-24 to 2026-10-31 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 24 Sept, 01:35 UTC
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Storms that moved through parts of the U.S. Southwest overnight Monday saturated the ground, which increases flood risk by reducing the capacity for additional rainfall to be absorbed. Meteorologists noted that runoff is likely to start much quicker when ground is already saturated, leading to faster flooding impacts.
The potential failure of a dam in south central New Mexico prompted evacuations in three communities along the Rio Grande. Residents in Rincon, Salem, and Garfield were ordered to seek higher ground immediately, with evacuations later extended to nearby Hatch and Placitas due to flooding risks from heavy rainfall.
The remnants of Hurricane Polo battered the U.S. Southwest on Tuesday evening, flooding roadways and forcing residents to evacuate. The New Mexico Department of Transportation reported flooded roads and debris on highways, while Arizona experienced significant flooding leading to multiple water rescues including a helicopter rescue west of Phoenix.
A helicopter rescue operation was conducted in Zion National Park, Utah, after flash flooding struck Heaps Canyon. Three people were rescued from flood-affected areas, and the East Fork of the Virgin River near Zion experienced rapid flooding with chocolate-colored floodwater.
Tropical Storm Rachel was moving parallel to Mexico's coast on Tuesday and was expected to become a hurricane soon. The storm was located approximately 300 miles west-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (112.6 kph), moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).
The National Weather Service forecast heavy rain to begin hitting Texas and Oklahoma beginning Tuesday night, with rain already starting in parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles by late Tuesday. Flood watches were in effect for parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, with flooding possible through at least Thursday.
Hurricane Nolo was moving northward in the central Pacific Ocean after drenching parts of the Big Island over the weekend. The storm threatened dangerous conditions for Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, a marine conservation area, though it was starting to slow on Tuesday.
Pacific storm activity has been above average during 2026, consistent with El Niño conditions in the year. This pattern has contributed to the occurrence of multiple hurricanes including Polo, Rachel, and Nolo.
Hurricane Polo made landfall in the Mexican state of Baja California Sur during the morning with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (177 kph). The storm subsequently crossed the Gulf of California and weakened to tropical storm status as it moved inland to the northeast.
About 700 people remained in shelters in Baja California Sur during Hurricane Polo's passage on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Federal authorities reported that most were expected to return to their homes. Baja California Sur Governor Víctor Castro stated that while the hurricane brought rain, there was no loss of life.
Hurricane Nolo drenched communities in the south and southeastern parts of Hawaii's Big Island over the weekend of September 27-28, 2026, causing significant flooding. Hawaii National Guard members rescued 19 people from flooding over the weekend in response to conditions created by the storm.
Mexican authorities reported that Hurricane Polo left no serious damage as it made landfall in Baja California Sur on September 29, 2026. The hurricane did not cause loss of life, according to statements from state officials during briefings on the storm's passage.
Hurricane Polo was forecast to move across the Gulf of California and bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of the U.S. Southwest later in the week. Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas were expected to receive inches of rain, raising flood risks in arid canyons and rocky areas with sparse vegetation.
Tropical Storm Rachel was moving parallel to Mexico's coast in the eastern Pacific on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 60-65 mph and was positioned approximately 265-300 miles southwest of various Mexican coastal locations while moving west-northwest at 12-13 mph. Tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of central Mexico's coast.
Heavy rain was already drenching parts of the U.S. Southwest on Tuesday morning, September 29, 2026, as moisture from Hurricane Polo moved inland. The National Weather Service warned of heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest and Southern High Plains through Tuesday.
Hurricane Nolo, which maintained Category 3 strength with maximum sustained winds of 110-120 mph, was positioned approximately 270 miles south-southeast of French Frigate Shoals and about 425 miles west-southwest of Honolulu on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The hurricane was approaching Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, a marine conservation area, with potential for dangerous conditions starting Tuesday.
Hurricane Polo made landfall in Baja California Sur, Mexico on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, near Las Barrancas with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The storm struck approximately 80 miles north of Cabo San Lazaro and 70 miles south of Mulege while moving northeast at 13 mph. By 8 a.m. local time, Polo had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with winds near 75 mph as it moved toward the northeast at 17 mph.
The government of Sonora announced on Monday, September 28, 2026, that it would suspend all nonessential activities, including school, sports, and nonessential work in the state capital and more than a dozen municipalities in preparation for Hurricane Polo's arrival.
Hurricane Polo was expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain across parts of Baja California Sur as it moved inland. The hurricane also brought life-threatening flash flooding and storm surge with destructive waves to coastal areas affected by onshore winds.
Pacific storm activity has been above average during the 2026 hurricane season, which is already at peak activity. National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Oravec stated that the above-average pattern is consistent with El Niño years, when the Pacific typically experiences more tropical storms and hurricanes than normal.
El Niño conditions are driving above-average Pacific hurricane season intensity with multiple Category 5 storms.
Hurricane Nolo threatens Hawaii's marine conservation areas with catastrophic rainfall and storm impacts.
Tropical Storm Rachel tracks parallel to Mexico's Pacific coast with ongoing monitoring of its impacts.
Polo's remnants unleash Southwest flooding crisis with dam failure risks and helicopter rescues in national parks.
El Niño conditions are driving above-average Pacific hurricane intensification during the 2026 season.
Tropical Storm Rachel tracks parallel to Mexico's Pacific coast amid ongoing eastern Pacific activity.
Hurricane Nolo brings catastrophic flooding threat to Hawaii with 20-inch rainfall projections.
Polo remnants cause heavy rain, flooding in Southwest after Mexico landfall.
Hurricane Polo made Category 2 landfall in Mexico with no serious damage reported.
Pacific hurricane season activity exceeds historical averages, fueled by El Niño-driven rapid intensification conditions.
Category 5 Hurricane Polo approaches Baja California with extreme winds and infrastructure challenges.
Hawaii mobilizes federal and state resources as Hurricane Nolo approaches with severe wind and rainfall threats.