2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to bring below-average storm activity
2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts below-average storm activity due to anticipated El Niño conditions.
Event / Disaster
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026
Tropical Storm Arthur formed on June 17, 2026, becoming the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm brought intense rainfall and flash flood threats to the Gulf Coast and southeastern United States.
7 reported locations
Daily activity
0 articles0 articles
2026-08-16 to 2026-11-13 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 18 Jun, 02:34 UTC
Follow the documented timeline or explore the related reporting.
What happened
Isolated tornadoes possible in southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi
The National Weather Service warned that isolated weak tornadoes are possible in southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi on Wednesday afternoon through night as Tropical Storm Arthur moves through the region.
Tropical Storm Arthur expected to weaken after moving inland
The National Hurricane Center forecast that Tropical Storm Arthur will not strengthen into a hurricane and will be downgraded to a tropical depression by Wednesday evening as it moves inland over the Texas-Louisiana border. The storm is expected to dissipate late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet expected along Texas and Louisiana coasts
Storm surge combined with normal tides is forecast to cause 2 to 4 feet of water rise above normal levels from Port Bolivar, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves, with the deepest water expected near and to the east of the landfall location.
Tropical Storm Arthur expected to bring life-threatening flooding to southeastern United States
Tropical Storm Arthur is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with some isolated areas receiving up to 20 inches, across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through early Friday. The National Hurricane Center warned of life-threatening flash flooding, with localized areas potentially receiving 2 to 4 inches of rain per hour. A flood watch is in effect from Houston to Atlanta.
Tropical Storm Arthur formed in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast
Tropical Storm Arthur formed Wednesday, June 17, 2026, in the Gulf of Mexico near the middle of the Texas coast, less than 50 miles from Port O'Connor. It was the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 40-45 mph and was moving northeastward at 9 mph.
2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to bring fewer storms than average
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest outlook predicts the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will bring 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 5 might grow into hurricanes. This is fewer storms than an average year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with activity typically peaking between August and October.
Tropical storm warnings issued for upper Texas and Louisiana coasts
The National Hurricane Center issued tropical storm warnings from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, indicating tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas within 12 to 24 hours. Winds of up to 40 mph are possible along the affected coasts on Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Arthur forms as first named storm of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical Storm Arthur formed Wednesday near the Gulf Coast, becoming the first named tropical storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm developed from a disorganized cluster of storms that had brought rain over eastern Mexico and the Gulf. Arthur had maximum sustained winds of 40-45 mph at formation.
Texas Governor Abbott declares disaster in 101 counties due to severe storms
Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 101 counties on Monday due to severe storms that preceded Tropical Storm Arthur, affecting parts of the state already dealing with severe rainfall.
Tropical Storm Arthur threatens Gulf Coast with heavy rainfall and flash flooding
Tropical Storm Arthur was forecast to bring intense rain and dangerous flash floods to Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Forecasters predicted 5 to 10 inches of rain through early Friday along the Texas coast, with isolated areas potentially receiving up to 20 inches. The highest flash flood potential was expected from Lake Charles, Louisiana, to Montgomery, Alabama, with the greatest rainfall totals near Mobile, Alabama.
Tropical storm warning issued for Texas and Louisiana coast
A tropical storm warning was issued from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, indicating that tropical storm conditions were expected within 12 hours. Coastal flooding and gusty winds were possible in the affected areas.
Arthur forms ahead of historical average date for first Atlantic tropical storm
Tropical Storm Arthur formed on June 17, 2026, which is several days earlier than the historical average date of June 20 for the first named Atlantic tropical storm based on 1991-2020 data.
El Niño pattern expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation in 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted that an El Niño pattern developing in the tropical Pacific would result in a relatively mild 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only 3 to 6 hurricanes and 8 to 14 named tropical storms expected. El Niño creates high vertical wind shear, which inhibits hurricane organization.
Read the coverage
2 alternative perspectives
Arthur threatens inland Southeast with life-threatening flood potential
Arthur poses life-threatening inland flood threat to southeastern U.S. as it moves ashore.
Arthur brings storm surge and tornado threats to Gulf Coast
Arthur brings storm surge and isolated tornado threats to Gulf Coast warning zones.
Early Atlantic storm formation signals shift in 2026 hurricane outlook
Early storm arrival contrasts with El Niño's expected suppression of 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity.
Arthur brings heavy rainfall and flooding threats to Gulf Coast
Arthur brings flooding threats to Gulf Coast; Texas Governor declares disaster in 101 counties.