U.S. government moves to restrict prediction market trading by federal workers
Government and markets restrict prediction trading by officials to prevent insider trading conflicts.
Event / Security
Operation Absolute Resolve Insider Trading
U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke charged with using classified information about the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place profitable bets on prediction markets, generating over $404,000 in profits. Faces multiple criminal charges including theft of government information and commodities fraud. Case prompts federal warnings and bipartisan calls for prediction market regulation.
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2026-08-18 to 2026-11-15 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 24 Apr, 11:36 UTC
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What happened
Venezuelan President Maduro captured in U.S. military operation
U.S. special forces conducted Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas. The operation involved a clandestine predawn military assault on their compound following months of intelligence gathering. Maduro and Flores were extracted under heavy security and flown to the United States to face federal narco-trafficking charges. Both are currently detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. President Donald Trump announced the operation on social media on January 3 with a photograph of the captured Maduro.
Polymarket cooperates with Justice Department investigation
Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets in the world, discovered that a user was trading on classified government information related to the Maduro operation. The platform alerted the U.S. Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. In a statement, Polymarket affirmed that 'insider trading has no place on Polymarket.'
Kalshi suspends congressional candidates for wagering on their own elections
On April 23, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market fined and suspended three congressional candidates who wagered on the outcome of their own elections. The action reflects growing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets and insider trading concerns.
U.S. special forces soldier charged with insider trading on Maduro capture
Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army special forces soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, was charged with using classified information about the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place winning bets on the prediction market Polymarket. Van Dyke was involved in planning and executing the operation beginning December 8, 2025. He placed bets totaling over $32,500 between December 30, 2025 and January 2, 2026, just hours before the operation commenced on January 3, 2026. His bets generated profits exceeding $404,000. He was charged with five counts including theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, unlawful use of confidential information for personal gain, and unlawful monetary transactions.
White House warns federal staff against insider trading on prediction markets
On the same day that The Associated Press reported suspicious betting on prediction markets concerning U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, the White House warned staff against using private government information to trade on prediction markets. This warning came following reports of highly specific and well-timed bets made on Polymarket regarding U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations on April 7, 2026, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits.
Van Dyke attempted to conceal profits through cryptocurrency transfers
After the Maduro capture operation, Master Sergeant Van Dyke moved the majority of his betting profits through financial channels to obscure their origin. He deposited funds into a foreign cryptocurrency vault and then transferred them to a newly created online brokerage account. On January 6, 2026, after news of the unusual betting payout spread publicly, Van Dyke requested that Polymarket delete his account, claiming he had lost access to his associated email address. He also allegedly changed the email address on his cryptocurrency exchange account.
CFTC files parallel complaint against Van Dyke
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, filed a formal complaint against Master Sergeant Van Dyke on April 24, 2026. The CFTC alleges that Van Dyke moved $35,000 from his personal bank account into a cryptocurrency exchange account on December 26, 2025, approximately one week before the military operation against Maduro. The complaint seeks financial repayment, penalties, a permanent ban on trading activities, and an injunction to prevent future violations of federal commodities laws.
Congressional prediction market bans proposed
Bipartisan lawmakers are considering legislation to ban prediction markets from allowing bets on wars, assassinations, or terrorist attacks. The proposals come in response to concerns about insider trading and national security risks highlighted by the Van Dyke case and other suspicious trades on geopolitical events.
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2 alternative perspectives
U.S. Military Operation Captures Venezuelan President Maduro in Caracas
U.S. military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro in Caracas.
Special Forces Soldier Charged in Venezuela Prediction Market Trading Case
Special forces soldier charged with insider trading on Venezuela prediction market using confidential information.