California and New York ban state officials from prediction market insider trading
California and New York enacted state bans on official insider trading in prediction markets.
Event / Security
Prediction Market Regulation
US regulatory developments on prediction markets, including trading restrictions for federal officials and oversight expansion by lawmakers and the CFTC.
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2026-08-18 to 2026-11-15 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 23 Apr, 01:07 UTC
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What happened
U.S. special forces soldier arrested for insider trading on Maduro capture prediction market
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old U.S. Army special forces soldier involved in the military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was arrested and charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and engaging in monetary transactions from unlawful activity.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured in U.S. military operation
U.S. military forces conducted a covert operation called Operation Absolute Fury that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from the presidential palace in Caracas in an overnight raid. Maduro was transported to New York to face federal drug-trafficking related charges and has pleaded not guilty.
U.S. soldier placed $33,000 bet on Maduro's removal using classified information
Van Dyke placed approximately $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket predicting Maduro would be 'out by January 31, 2026,' hours before President Trump's announcement of Maduro's capture. The bets won and generated over $409,000 in profits. Van Dyke created his Polymarket account on December 26 and made approximately 13 bets between December 27 and January 2.
Justice Department warns prediction markets cannot be used for insider trading
U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton stated that prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain, emphasizing that the defendant's actions violated the trust placed in him by the U.S. Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets.
California prohibits state officials from insider trading on prediction markets
California issued regulations barring state officials from using inside knowledge to place bets on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi suspends three U.S. congressional candidates for insider trading on their own elections
Prediction market platform Kalshi suspended three U.S. congressional candidates for violating Rule 5.17(z), which prohibits individuals with influence over election outcomes from trading on those outcomes. The suspended candidates were Matt Klein (Democratic Minnesota state Senator seeking U.S. House nomination for Minnesota's 2nd district), Ezekiel Enriquez (Republican seeking U.S. House nomination for Texas's 21st district), and Mark Moran (independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia). Klein and Enriquez reached settlements with the company after betting small amounts on their own elections, while Moran bet approximately $100 on himself.
Kalshi fined MrBeast editor and California politician for insider trading
In February, prediction market Kalshi banned and fined a content creator who edited for MrBeast for trading on YouTube streaming markets, and a California politician who wagered $200 on his own gubernatorial bid.
Mark Moran admits to deliberate $100 bet on his own Senate candidacy
Mark Moran, an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, publicly stated on social media that he deliberately bet approximately $100 on himself, claiming he wanted to be caught to draw attention to what he characterized as Kalshi's harmful practices. Moran stated his intention as an elected official would be to impose a 25% vice tax on Kalshi to pay down the national debt.
Unknown trader profited over $400,000 betting on Venezuelan president's ouster
An unknown trader made more than $400,000 by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be ousted from power ahead of a U.S. operation targeting the leader, raising concerns about potential insider trading on prediction markets.
New York Governor issues executive order against insider trading on prediction markets
New York Governor Kathy Hochul issued an executive order prohibiting state employees from engaging in insider trading on prediction markets. Hochul characterized the practice as corruption, stating 'Getting rich by betting on inside information is corruption, plain and simple.'
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2 alternative perspectives
Prediction Market Platform Suspends Candidates Over Insider Trading Violations
Prediction market platform Kalshi suspended candidates and fined individuals for insider trading on elections.