IUCN Assessment Finds Nearly All Shallow-Water Reefs Face Extremely High Risk
IUCN finds 96% of assessed coral reefs Critically Endangered, with nearly all shallow-water reefs at extremely high risk by 2075.
Event / Environment
The IUCN released its first global assessment of shallow-water coral reefs, classifying 96% of 127 reef ecosystems across more than 80 countries and territories as Critically Endangered. The assessment projects near-total loss of these reefs by 2075 under the IPCC intermediate warming scenario. Climate-driven thermal stress is identified as the most persistent threat, with pollution, overfishing and overtourism also contributing. The assessment was published during COP17 Biodiversity in Yerevan, Armenia.
2026-10-22 to 2026-10-26 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 22 Oct, 19:55 UTC
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IUCN Red List coral reef scientific lead Mishal Gudka stated that some coral reefs have demonstrated a remarkable capacity to recover after devastating bleaching events.
On Wednesday, 21 October 2026, the United Nations stated that current national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions put the world on a path to approximately 2.6°C of warming over this century.
A study published in the journal Nature found that in 2020, nearly half of coral species had a high relative risk of extinction, with climate change identified as the main driver of this decline.
The IUCN classified 96% of the assessed coral reefs, located in more than 80 countries and territories, in the Critically Endangered category, the highest threat level in the IUCN Red List framework.
Governments worldwide are meeting in Yerevan, Armenia, for the COP17 Biodiversity summit, during which the IUCN coral reef assessment was published.
The IUCN identified thermal stress linked to climate change as the most constant threat behind the decline of coral reefs worldwide. Pollution, overfishing, and overtourism also contribute to coral health degradation. Climate change drives ocean warming and increases the frequency and intensity of coral bleaching events.
The IUCN described a critical 50-year window for conservation action to give coral reefs a chance to recover. IUCN Director General Grethel Aguilar stated that reducing emissions, expanding protection and restoration efforts, and investing in resilient coastal ecosystems and dependent communities are known measures for this purpose.
The IUCN coral reef assessment covered 127 tropical and subtropical coral reef ecosystems with a combined area of 188,362 square kilometers.
The IUCN assessment identified the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, the Coral Triangle in the western Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asia, the Mesoamerican Reef in the Caribbean, and the coral reefs of the Red Sea as among the most threatened reef systems.
Governments at the COP17 Biodiversity summit are discussing how to preserve the 2022 global nature agreement, which targets protecting 30% of land and oceans by 2030. Progress toward the targets is becoming more difficult as governments have been slow to implement their commitments.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) assessed that nearly all shallow-water coral reefs worldwide face an extremely high risk of disappearing by 2075 due to climate change. The assessment was released on Thursday, 22 October 2026, as IUCN's first global assessment of this type for coral reef ecosystems.
The researchers conducting the IUCN coral reef assessment used the intermediate emissions scenario of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects global temperatures rising 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
IUCN finds 96% of assessed coral reefs Critically Endangered, with nearly all shallow-water reefs at extremely high risk by 2075.