Iran war costs exceed $30 billion as U.S. aircraft losses mount
Iran war costs exceed $30 billion with 60 U.S. aircraft destroyed, fueling oil-driven inflation.
Event / Economy
US Federal Reserve Policy 2026
Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and economic outlook for 2026, including interest rate adjustments, inflation management, and economic forecasting.
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2026-08-29 to 2026-10-31 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 29 Aug, 01:04 UTC
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What happened
SK Hynix reports record quarterly operating profit of 83.3 trillion won
SK Hynix reported a record operating profit of 83.3 trillion won ($62.8 billion) for the latest quarter, nearly seven times higher than a year earlier and above market estimates. Its shares rose sharply in Seoul on the day of the Fed decision.
Fed statement says inflation remains elevated while economic activity expands
The post-meeting statement said inflation remains elevated and economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. It cited resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth, robust capital investment, and job gains that have kept pace with the workforce.
Trump sets up committee to examine mortgage fraud allegations against Lisa Cook
In September 2026 President Donald Trump set up a committee to examine allegations that Fed Governor Lisa Cook committed mortgage fraud. Cook has denied the allegations. This was a renewed effort to remove her from the Board.
US consumer prices rise 3.7% year over year in September 2026
US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September 2026, up from 2.4% in February 2026, just before the Iran war. The consumer price index rose 0.3% month over month in both August and September.
S&P 500 edges up ahead of the Fed decision, near its all-time high
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% in morning trading on the day of the Fed decision, within about 1% of its all-time high set earlier in October 2026.
US economy forecast to grow 3% in July-September quarter
US economic growth for the July-September 2026 quarter is forecast to reach 3%, up from 2.2% in the April-June quarter. The government is scheduled to publish the figure on Thursday.
Federal Open Market Committee votes 10-2 to hold rates steady
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Two members dissented, each favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
Supreme Court rules Lisa Cook may keep her Fed post during litigation
In June 2026 the Supreme Court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook could keep her job while litigation over her removal by the Trump administration continued.
Brent crude rises 1.8% to $111.33 a barrel
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 1.8% to $111.33 a barrel amid continued uncertainty over developments in the Middle East.
South Korea's Kospi closes up 6.6% at 6,012.44
South Korea's Kospi index closed at 6,012.44 after rising 6.6%, led by a surge in SK Hynix shares.
Houthi rebels attack a major Saudi Arabian refinery
Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked a major refinery in Saudi Arabia during the week of the Fed decision, contributing to higher oil prices.
Federal Reserve keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4%
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady in the target range of 3.75% to 4% at its October 2026 meeting, after raising the rate by 25 basis points in September.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh states the inflation target is 2% measured by PCE
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed has no soft or implicit inflation target. He stated the price stability target is 2%, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
Average 30-year US mortgage rate reaches 7.4%, a three-year high
The average 30-year mortgage rate reached a three-year high of 7.4% earlier in October 2026 before slipping somewhat. Higher mortgage rates have made buying a home unaffordable for an estimated 5 million additional Americans since the start of 2026.
Futures markets price in a Fed rate hike in December 2026
Wall Street investors had priced in a federal funds rate hike at the Fed's December 2026 meeting, according to futures market pricing.
10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.99% after topping 5.30% earlier in October
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 4.99% on the morning of the decision. It had earlier in October reached above 5.30%, its highest level since 2002, before pulling back.
Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissent in favor of a quarter-point rate hike
Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against holding rates steady and in favor of raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. It was Cook's first dissent since she joined the Board of Governors in 2022.
US unemployment rate stands at 4.2%
The US unemployment rate was 4.2% at the time of the decision, while hiring has been sluggish.
Fed announces FOMC will hold eight meetings per year starting in 2027
Starting in 2027, the FOMC will hold eight meetings per year. One 2027 meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with no rate vote or policy statement anticipated. Warsh said 2028 is expected to include two strategy meetings and six policy meetings.
US midterm elections take place six days after the Fed decision
The Fed's decision came six days before the US midterm elections. The campaign has focused heavily on cost of living and affordability concerns.
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2 alternative perspectives
Economic growth and job gains underpin labor market durability
Economic growth and 162,000 August job gains sustain labor market resilience despite headwinds.
Warsh Navigates Rate Hike as Inflation and Oil Prices Surge
Warsh navigates rate hike amid geopolitical oil shocks and persistent 3.4% inflation.
Federal Reserve signals increased likelihood of September rate cut
Federal Reserve signals higher probability of September rate cut amid moderating wage growth and sectoral job losses.
Information sector sheds 23,000 jobs amid AI automation shift
Information sector shed 23,000 jobs in August, possibly from AI automation.
August job gains and upward revision signal labor market strength
August job gains and upward July revision confirm labor market resilience despite moderating wage growth.
Warsh's Jackson Hole speech triggers sharp treasury yield surge
Treasury yields spiked on Warsh's speech; stocks barely moved.
Warsh Prioritizes Inflation Target and AI Economic Risks
Warsh commits to 2% inflation target while prioritizing artificial intelligence's economic impact.
Warsh Launches Five-Point Operational Overhaul at Federal Reserve
Fed Chair Warsh establishes five task forces and proposes reduced forward guidance to reform central bank operations.