Iran war costs exceed $30 billion as U.S. aircraft losses mount
Iran war costs exceed $30 billion with 60 U.S. aircraft destroyed, fueling oil-driven inflation.
Event / Economy
US Federal Reserve Policy 2026
Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and economic outlook for 2026, including interest rate adjustments, inflation management, and economic forecasting.
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2026-08-29 to 2026-10-31 · UTC publication dates
Coverage begins 29 Aug, 01:04 UTC
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What happened
New York Fed President suggests one more rate hike appropriate this year
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated on October 13 that one more rate hike would be appropriate in 2026. Williams also indicated the Fed might not tighten policy further in 2027, noting he expects overall inflation to be close to the central bank's 2 percent target next year with disinflationary forces at play.
Overall energy index jumps 5.2 percent in September
The energy index increased 5.2 percent in September 2026, following a 4.2 percent increase in August. Fuel oil prices, including diesel, spiked more than 15 percent during the month.
Cleveland Fed President advocates for quick monetary policy adjustments
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack stated on October 12 that it is generally preferable to make smaller monetary policy adjustments relatively quickly rather than wait and risk needing a larger course correction. Hammack affirmed that a restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation.
Food prices remain flat in September
Food prices were flat in September 2026 on a monthly basis but remain up 2.5 percent year-over-year. Prices for food at home fell 0.1 percent while dining out prices rose 0.2 percent.
Gasoline prices surge 9.1 percent in September
Gasoline prices rose 9.1 percent in September 2026, accounting for more than half of the monthly headline inflation increase. The surge was attributed to crude oil prices remaining firmly above $90 per barrel due to the ongoing war in Iran, now approaching its ninth month. On a 12-month basis, gasoline prices are up 34 percent.
Fed projects inflation to decline in 2027 and 2028
The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections forecasts the personal consumption expenditures inflation rate to slow to 2.3 percent in 2027 and 2.1 percent in 2028. Core PCE inflation is expected to be stickier at 2.5 percent in 2027 and 2.2 percent in 2028.
U.S. annual inflation reaches 3.7 percent in September
The U.S. consumer price index rose to 3.7 percent annually in September 2026, exceeding the consensus economist forecast of 3.6 percent. The increase was primarily driven by surging energy prices, particularly gasoline which climbed over 9 percent. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent, the fastest pace since April.
Core inflation rises to 2.6 percent year-over-year in September
Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food categories, reached 2.6 percent on a 12-month basis in September 2026, exceeding the economist forecast of 2.5 percent. Core inflation also rose 0.3 percent monthly, above the expected 0.2 percent increase.
Shelter prices rise 0.4 percent in September
Shelter prices increased 0.4 percent in September 2026, following a 0.3 percent rise in August, bringing the yearly gain to 3.2 percent. Rents rose 0.2 percent, while hotel and motel prices jumped 2.0 percent.
Federal Reserve raised interest rates for first time in three years
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the previous month for the first time in three years in an effort to cushion potential inflationary effects from oil-driven second and third-order inflation impacts.
Producer price index report expected Thursday showing persistent inflation
A report on inflation called the producer price index will be released Thursday and is expected to show that inflation remains stubbornly high. This index measures inflation faced by businesses before it hits consumers.
Ten-year Treasury yield reaches highest level since 2002
The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rates, recently touched its highest level since 2002. Higher Treasury yields are driven by higher inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's rate hike efforts. The yield eased slightly to 5.24% late Friday.
Higher mortgage rates weigh on housing market
Higher mortgage rates driven by rising Treasury yields have been weighing on the housing market. Wall Street will receive an update on home sales on Tuesday as the market continues to feel the pressure from elevated borrowing costs.
Retail sales expected to show consumer spending pullback
A report on retail sales for September will be released Thursday. Economists expect the report to show that households pulled back on spending in response to high prices driven by elevated inflation.
Oil price volatility linked to U.S. war with Iran
Oil prices have been swinging between $96 and nearly $110 per barrel over the last month due to uncertainty about when the U.S. war with Iran will end and its continued impact on global energy supplies and inflation. This volatility is affecting broader market conditions and consumer prices.
Brent crude oil prices surge to $106.95 per barrel
The price of Brent crude, the international standard, jumped 2.1% to $106.95 per barrel during Monday trading. Oil prices have been volatile, swinging between $96 and nearly $110 over the preceding month due to uncertainty about the U.S. war with Iran and its continued impact on global energy supplies and inflation.
President Trump announces deal to purchase Russian diesel from Russia
President Donald Trump announced on social media Friday that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to purchase Russian diesel, with the stated aim of reducing fuel price spikes ahead of the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. However, this plan contradicts U.S. efforts to reduce the flow of money Russia receives from oil and gas sales that can be used to finance its war against Ukraine.
Technology stocks decline despite year-long market leadership
Technology stocks were the biggest weight on the market during Monday trading. Micron Technology fell 3.7-4.2%, Advanced Micro Devices fell 1.8-3%, and Nvidia fell 1.3%. These companies, which have been the primary drivers of the broader market's record gains throughout the year, face increased investor scrutiny regarding whether gains from the artificial intelligence frenzy can translate into future earnings growth.
S&P 500 trades near all-time record with mixed market movement
The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged and trading around its record set the previous week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 91-175 points (0.2-0.3%), while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.1-0.5% during Monday's trading session. The market remains volatile with daily fluctuations driven by energy prices and their impact on bond yields and inflation expectations.
Energy stocks surge as oil prices jump higher
Energy sector stocks gained significantly during Monday trading as oil prices rose. Exxon Mobil rose 1.8% and Chevron rose 1.6-1.9%. The gains were driven by the 2% jump in oil prices despite President Trump's announcement of the Russian diesel purchase deal.
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2 alternative perspectives
Economic growth and job gains underpin labor market durability
Economic growth and 162,000 August job gains sustain labor market resilience despite headwinds.
Warsh Navigates Rate Hike as Inflation and Oil Prices Surge
Warsh navigates rate hike amid geopolitical oil shocks and persistent 3.4% inflation.
Federal Reserve signals increased likelihood of September rate cut
Federal Reserve signals higher probability of September rate cut amid moderating wage growth and sectoral job losses.
Information sector sheds 23,000 jobs amid AI automation shift
Information sector shed 23,000 jobs in August, possibly from AI automation.
August job gains and upward revision signal labor market strength
August job gains and upward July revision confirm labor market resilience despite moderating wage growth.
Warsh's Jackson Hole speech triggers sharp treasury yield surge
Treasury yields spiked on Warsh's speech; stocks barely moved.
Warsh Prioritizes Inflation Target and AI Economic Risks
Warsh commits to 2% inflation target while prioritizing artificial intelligence's economic impact.
Warsh Launches Five-Point Operational Overhaul at Federal Reserve
Fed Chair Warsh establishes five task forces and proposes reduced forward guidance to reform central bank operations.